Georgia: Trump holds slim lead in new Landmark Communications*Landmark Communications* poll
By Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 20 to October 20, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump. In the most recent Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll on October 12 Clinton received only 46.7%, while Trump received 53.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Trump at 52.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll Trump's poll average is 0 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.
