FOX 8/Mason-Dixon*FOX 8/Mason-Dixon* poll in Louisiana: Clinton trails by a sizable margin

FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Of those who answered the question, 34.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 54.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 17 to October 19 with 625 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 38.6% for Clinton and 61.4% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.5%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.