FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 34.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 54.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 17 to October 19 with 625 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 38.6% for Clinton and 61.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.5%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.