Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 67.1% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.