OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.