Results of a new poll administered by KABC/SurveyUSA were released. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15. A total of 725 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.7 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 62.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.