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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In today's update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will obtain 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton while predicts that Trump will win.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 59.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump has however become the forerunner in prediction markets and expert surveys. During 20 days had gained an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.

Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 50.0% in econometric models is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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