Arizona Republic released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 0 participants. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Arizona Republic poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.