OH Predictive Insights released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
According to the results, billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from September 28 to September 30 with 718 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Clinton at 50.9% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% and Trump 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.