OH Predictive Insights published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on the same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from September 28 to September 30, among a random sample of 718 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Clinton at 50.9% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% and Trump 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.