Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were released. The poll asked interviewees from Arizona for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 41.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 6 and September 8. The sample size was 649 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Trump's poll average is 1.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.