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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 50.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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