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Washington: New Elway poll shows Clinton with 19 points lead


Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Elway poll results




Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13 with 500 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.1%. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Elway poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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