Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead

The Trial-heat model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.3%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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