The Trial-heat model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.