IBD/TIPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from October 13 to October 18 with 788 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. On September 1 Clinton obtained only 50.6% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.1 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.