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Time-for-change model: Trump is in the lead

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The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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