The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Illinois sees Clinton at 59.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll Clinton's poll average is 6.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the PollyVote is 5.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.