Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16 with 685 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.0% for Trump. In the latest Quinnipiac poll on November 15 Clinton obtained only 43.5%, while Trump obtained 56.5%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado has Clinton at 54.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.