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Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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