YouGov/Economist published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
YouGov/Economist poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 15 to October 18 via Internet. A total of 1032 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. In the latest YouGov/Economist poll on September 24 Clinton received only 52.2%, while Trump received 47.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the YouGov/Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.