Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.6 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.