The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 45.7%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 53.9% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.