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New Hampshire: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 45.7%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 53.9% of the vote.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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