Nevada: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.3% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to gain 47.6% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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