Nevada: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.3% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to gain 47.6% of the vote.
In Nevada, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.