Michigan: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 56.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will win 44.0%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to obtain 43.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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