Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Clinton is in the lead

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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