The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Leading indicators model.
The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.