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Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead


The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Leading indicators model.

The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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