Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who replied, 33.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 19 and October 2. The sample size was 1000 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.