Results of a new national poll conducted by IBD/TIPP were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 14 to October 19 among 779 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the most recent IBD/TIPP poll on September 1 Clinton received only 50.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.