Results of a new national poll conducted by IBD were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 19. A total of 779 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the most recent IBD poll on October 18 Clinton received 51.8%, while Trump received only 48.2%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.5%. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.