Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 67.2% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.