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Keys to the White House model shows Trump in the lead


The Keys to the White House model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.3%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Trump at 46.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Trump's index model average is 4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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