The Keys to the White House model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Trump at 46.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Trump's index model average is 4 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.