KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15. A total of 725 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 62.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.