The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.1%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.