Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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