Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 55.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.5%. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to obtain 44.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.3%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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