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Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

The Holbrook & DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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