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Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, and 46.6% for Trump. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 53.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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