Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were distributed. The poll asked participants from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
According to the results, 58.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.