Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell were published. The poll asked respondents from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who replied, 53.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 18 to October 18, among a random sample of 1102 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.8% was obtained by Clinton in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on September 7, for Trump this result was 47.2%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan sees Clinton at 57.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that the PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.