Fair model: Trump is in the lead

The Fair model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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