Electoral-cycle model: Trump is in the lead

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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