DeSart & Holbrook model in Wisconsin: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton, and 45.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to gain only 53.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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