DeSart & Holbrook model in Texas: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.7% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will win 55.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 45.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Texas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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