DeSart & Holbrook model in Texas: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.7% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will win 55.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 45.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Texas.