DeSart & Holbrook model in North Carolina: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton, and 49.7% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to achieve 49.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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