The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 59.6% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 40.4%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win only 59.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.