DeSart & Holbrook model in Illinois: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 61.3% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will win 38.7%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to end up with 62.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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