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DeSart & Holbrook model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.2% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on October 13, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 52.0% of the vote.

In Florida, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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