The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.2% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, while Trump will end up with 46.8%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to obtain 46.7% of the vote.
In Colorado, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Colorado. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Colorado.