DeSart & Holbrook model in Alabama: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 39.2% for Clinton, and 60.8% for Trump in Alabama.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.1% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.