The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.
In Iowa, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.