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DeSart & Holbrook model: Clinton tied with Trump in Iowa

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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