Hit enter after type your search item

Convention bump model shows Clinton in the lead

/
/
/
17 Views

The Convention bump model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar